The EU came with a blueprint on how to reduce gas imports. It says that, in an ideal case, we can cut only 2/3 (via a combination of measures). But – it means it all works perfectly and the EU can secure ALL LNG global capacity free of long-term contracts. Realistically – me MAYBE can cut 50%. Which implies Europe will finance FOREVER the war machine of Putin.
The problem with these assessments is that they are wrong. They don’t talk about the only realistic measure, the only one that makes economic sense. It’s about cutting down the petchem industry in Germany. It’s an industry that does not make economic sense – Germany has NO domestic energy production, it’s just a way to get subsidized cheap gas on which to build fake global competitiveness (at huge geopolitical cost for Europe).
Of course – the Germans will never do it (it’s about 200bn EUR yearly revenues and 400k employees, about half of it with BASF). Even if they can access LNG, using that will make the industry unviable.
The end result of all of this is a major fracture inside the EU. The other countries will manage to cut the dependency on Russia, but the Germans will not. Which will mean no one will accept any moral, economic or political leadership from Germany.
It is all very ironic. History repeats. I will shock some of you with this, but it has to be said. BASF is the successor of IGFarben, who financed directly Hitler, produced the zykon-b used for killing in the camps, and used people imprisoned at Auschwitz or Buchenwald as slave labor.