Our economic and financial analysis of the week’s events (p.2)
In China, annual GDP growth slowed from 6.2% to 6.0% in Q3, despite the stimulus plan This is notably explained, according to our analysis, by the fact that the stimulus measures mainly target the private sector…
… and in a context of a sharp slowdown in exports and persisting uncertainties linked to the trade war, as well as lacklustre domestic demand, their effectiveness is limited
As a result, although the ongoing China-US negotiations may, at times, reassure international investors…
… their very limited progress should be insufficient to spontaneously boost growth
The stabilising of the Chinese economy and, therefore, of emerging economies, would depend on additional measures implemented by the authorities, according to our analysis
While the Chinese central bank should continue to be at the manoeuvre, a stronger increase in public investment, notably in infrastructure, would be necessary
In the United States, as we were expecting, the Fed announced that it was resuming its balance sheet expansion starting from 15 October and through Q2 2020, at least
To do this, it will purchase Treasury bills, at a monthly pace of USD60 billion
While the Fed’s objective is to alleviate the upwards pressure on US short-term rates…
… the monthly amount of its purchases is substantial and should support the acceleration in global liquidity in H2 2019 and, especially, in H1 2020 Focus
Weekly Economic Insights - 21 October 2019 - Fed China - Focus - Global food demand
